WARROOM/CONFLICTS/MEXICAN DRUG WAR
North America // 2006–PRESENT

Mexican Drug War

HIGHActive
THREAT INTENSITY // 82/100
CASUALTIES
450,000+
DISPLACED
400,000+
SANCTIONS
0
DURATION
18+ years
SITUATION OVERVIEW

The Mexican Drug War is an ongoing asymmetric conflict between the Mexican federal government and powerful transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), primarily the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). Since President Calderón deployed the military in 2006, the war has claimed over 450,000 lives and caused widespread internal displacement. The conflict intensified in 2024 following the arrest and U.S. extradition of Sinaloa Cartel co-founder Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada, triggering an internal faction war between loyalists of Zambada and those of Joaquín Guzmán López. President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October 2024, has maintained a hybrid security strategy combining military operations with social programs. The CJNG continues its territorial expansion into new states, while cartel violence increasingly spills across the U.S. border, straining bilateral relations and prompting U.S. Congress threats of direct military intervention.

PARTIES INVOLVED
🇲🇽Mexican Federal GovernmentDEFENDER
🇲🇽Sinaloa Cartel (Chapitos faction)AGGRESSOR
🇲🇽Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)AGGRESSOR
🇲🇽Sinaloa Cartel (Mayistas faction)AGGRESSOR
🇺🇸United States (DEA / Treasury OFAC)SUPPORTER
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EVENTS TIMELINE
T-2025-03CJNG Offensive in Michoacán

Jalisco New Generation Cartel launched a major offensive in the Tierra Caliente region of Michoacán, displacing over 3,000 civilians and killing at least 45 people in clashes with Cárteles Unidos and federal security forces.

T-2025-01Sinaloa Intra-Cartel War Escalates

Faction fighting between Chapitos loyalists and Mayistas intensified in Culiacán and Badiraguato, with car bombs and ambushes leaving over 120 dead in January alone. The Mexican Army deployed 3,000 additional troops to Sinaloa.

T-2024-10Sheinbaum Takes Office, Announces New Security Plan

Incoming President Claudia Sheinbaum unveiled a six-pillar security strategy combining National Guard deployments, intelligence coordination with the U.S., and social welfare programs targeting cartel recruitment zones.

T-2024-08Arrest of 'El Mayo' Zambada Triggers Sinaloa Split

Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada was arrested in Texas after allegedly being lured by Joaquín Guzmán López. The event fractured the Sinaloa Cartel into two warring factions, sparking the deadliest period of violence in Sinaloa in over a decade.

T-2024-05U.S. Designates CJNG as Transnational Criminal Organization

The U.S. Treasury Department expanded OFAC sanctions against 22 CJNG-linked individuals and front companies across Mexico, Colombia, and China, targeting fentanyl precursor supply chains in a joint operation with the DEA.